Rugby season is well and truly under way. We have the six-nations currently in progress and then we have a much-anticipated 4-month super rugby tournament commencing towards the end of February, with the 4-Nations (Should it not have been called the Quad-Nations?) kicking off after the Super Rugby tournament. Jip, rugby fans are in for a treat over the next 8-months and we are sure there will be many angry wives (or husbands?)
So what does this mean? It means rugby season is money making season, we can make some serious money betting on rugby over the course of the next couple of months!
Betting on rugby can be very profitable as mentioned in a previous post – statistically rugby betting is one of the best sports to bet on it terms of returns and making a profit.
With that being said, it is not as simple as placing a bet on rugby and then getting a return. No, you need to have a rugby betting system or strategy in place i.e. you need to know what you are doing in your attempt to make a profit.
In this post, we will give you some expert rugby betting tips, and reveal our rugby betting system (an advanced rugby betting tutorial consisting of different analytical steps), which more often than not, result in returns. We don’t win every wager, but we win more than we lose.
Our ultimate rugby betting goal is to have a 60% winning ratio, ensuring we beat the bookies. Thus, making sure we make more money than we lose. Below follows rugby betting tips and strategies – an advanced rugby betting tutorial:
Rugby Betting Tip 1: A wager is an investment
The first and perhaps most important rugby betting tip we can give you is that you should think of a rugby bet like you would think of an investment.
Needless to say, if you are going to invest money in the stock market or any other fund, you are going to do research. You are going to find out if the investment you are making will give you a return and how much return, is the return worth your initial investment? What is the risk associated with the investment?
You should approach rugby betting exactly like you approach an investment. Think about it for a second, you are placing your money on a team which you believe will win, which in essence mean that you are making an investment on the team/match.
If you can grasp the above rugby betting tip, you will go a long way in your attempt to becoming a successful punter! This brings us to our second point.
Rugby Betting Tip 2: Managing your portfolio / Bankroll
A bankroll refers to the amount of money you have in your gambling account. You should try to fund your bankroll with a MINIMUM of $100, the more you can the better. However, we will call $100 the absolute minimum for a proper bankroll.
If you want to change your occupation to a full-time sports better (which is debatable whether it can be done or not) you will need at least $1000+ to fund your bankroll.
Again you should think of rugby betting as an investment, think of yourself as a broker playing the stock market.
Now that you have a bankroll set up, it’s time to start managing your bankroll. Your bankroll is the bread and butter of your rugby betting system, needless to say, you want to grow it, however, it is of vital importance that you stay disciplined, and make smart decisions.
How to manage bankroll?
- Look for a rugby match you want to place a bet on
- Calculate your winning probability
- Determine stake accordingly (min 3% – max 10% of bankroll)
The golden rule, which is probably the best rugby betting tip you will get, is to never, ever bet more than 10%, of your bankroll. Even if your rugby betting system gives a team a 99% chance of winning a match, DO NOT go over 10%!
Rugby Betting Tip 3: The money is in the statistics
Before you place your bet you want to examine the team you are wanting to place your bet on, remember the stock market example.
Before you will invest in a company you will read their financial statements and all other information you can get!
You should do exactly the same when betting on rugby, by means of statistics, and that is essentially what a rugby betting system is. A rugby betting system simply relies on statistics to predict the outcome of a match!
There are two websites, which will give you everything you will need to know (absolutely free of charge). The first is rugbydata.com and the other is espnscrum.com, please note we are in no way associated or endorsing these website.
What should you look for in the statistics?
Ideally, you want to find a pattern, to give you an indication of which team is more likely to win, statistics are very seldom wrong. Thus, if you examine the statistics correctly and you bet with your brain and not your heart you will go a long way in becoming a successful rugby punter. Yes, even if that means betting AGAINST your much-beloved team!
The following rugby statistics are important to consider:
- Head to Head Statistics
Look for the following in your Head to Head statistical analysis:
- How many matches have been played between the two teams?
- Which team has won the most?
- Which team has won the most fixtures in the recent 3-years?
- Consider home and away matches?
- Consider the venue where the match is being played how many times has team “A” won against team “B” at their venue?
The above is your bread and butter when it comes to rugby betting tips. Statistics and patterns often repeat itself. Consider the following:
The last time Scotland have beaten Wales was way back in 2007, which was at Scotland’s home ground, Murrayfield.
However when you further explore the statistics (not inserting the other image, you can view it on rugbydata.com) the last time Scotland won Wales on their home field (the Millennium stadium) was in 2002! That is 14 years back, at the time of writing.
One of the primary factors our rugby betting system relies on is the simple fact that history repeats itself. Since the last time Scotland has won Wales at the Millennium stadium was 14-years back in 2002. We do not believe that Scotland will win this fixture.
Thus, when we publish our rugby betting tips – we will simply rely on our rugby betting system which shows us that history is clearly favouring the home team, Wales in this case.
The bookmakers, 888sport in this case, are offering the following odds for the above match. The odds for the outright market win, draw no bet (meaning who will win the game, the bet is void if it is a draw) can be seen below:
Placing Your Bet:
As showed in our rugby betting system above, history clearly favours Wales. We are confident Wales will win this match thus, we will place 10% of our bankroll (which is $1000) on Wales to win outright.
If Wales win the fixture we get a $200 return on our investment (wager) which is not a bad day at the office!
A Word of warning
When working with your betting system and analysing the statistics to produce your rugby betting tips, it will not always be as clear as the above example. Sometimes it will be difficult to find a pattern. However, the more you use the system the better you will get i.e the more you examine statistics the clearer it will become which team will win.
Another import point to note about the above is that the statistical analysis used above is very successful when you want to determine a straight up winning wager, however, it does not include handicap betting which we will examine next!
Using statistical analysis for handicap betting
If you are unfamiliar with rugby spread betting / handicap betting, we suggest you stop reading and go to our introduction to rugby handicap betting which, we have extensively covered in a previous post.
Rugby spread betting, for any given match, is set at near even odds, or very near to that considering you should account for the bookmakers margin but for simplicity sake, we will refer to it as 50-50 odds.
What should you look for?
- Average Points difference between the teams overall.
- Average points difference between the teams over the course of last 5 fixtures.
- Home team average points difference past 5-fixtures.
- Total games played, won and lost by both teams.
- Bookmakers Handicap line
For this example, we will be using Wales vs France as our example to further examine our rugby betting system.
In total, there have been 93 games played between Wales and France with Wales narrowly holding the upper hand with 47 games won, opposed to France who has won 43, furthermore, there has also been 3 draws over the course of the 93 fixtures.
We are not doing our statistical betting analysis for straight up betting, however, the above is still important. By looking at the above, it should be pretty clear that the average points difference should be very close since the winning/ losing ratio for both these rugby teams are very close to 50%.
By looking at the statistics between these two teams, it shows the following:
As we mentioned before looking at the average points difference we knew it was going to be close, and close it is, as can be seen from the above image the average points difference between Wales and France over all fixtures is less than 1-point!
Bookmakers Handicap Line
After having examined numerous bookmakers, most bookmakers have set their line around the region of 8-points, with perhaps William Hill, offering the best value setting their line at 8-points in favour of Wales. Meaning they are giving France an 8-point head start as you should know.
So the spread has been set at 8-points, even though there is only a total points difference of 0.49 points across all games. Now it’s time, to put our rugby betting system for spread betting to the test and examine why the bookmakers believe there should be an 8-point spread.Open An Account With William Hill
Home Team Point Difference Over Past 5-years
Wales is the home team for the current fixture as can be seen from the image above, courtesy of William Hill UK. When looking at the past 5 fixtures played at the Millennium Stadium in Wales, the rugby betting system currently paints a very different picture.
The last time France won against Wales at the Millennium Stadium in Wales was way back in 2007, seen in the above image. Furthermore, the average point difference between Wales and France over the course of the past 5 pictures played in Wales is 5.8-points in favour of Wales.
Suddenly it becomes much more clear as to why the bookmakers have set the line at -/+ 8-points. However, it is not the time to jump onto the wager and place a bet on France with +8-points just because the rugby betting system is showing an average points difference of 6-points, the rugby betting system only shows you the statistical analysis you did for the respective rugby matches.
Remember earlier in the post where we mentioned it is of vital importance that you should remain up to date with current rugby news? Wales has been consistently one of the best teams, not only in the current tournament but generally in the Northern Hemisphere for several years now. Which you should know if you have been following the latest rugby news.
Thus, considering Wales has been one of the better sides, and France has not been very impressive in the current tournament and have struggled to get a win at the Millennium Stadium for 9-years now at the time of writing. We will discard the 2007 result.
When you discard the 2007 result the average point difference comes out at, +13 in favour of Wales! Thus considering the statistics, team form and team news we will make the wager of -7.5 points in favour of Wales, and use one of our preferred bookmakers, Unibet to place the bet on Wales using 10% of our bankroll, since we are confident about our rugby betting systems prediction.Open An Account With Unibet But the point spread is -8 why place a bet with a handicap of -7.5 points you might wonder? Because the half point is your friend! All major bookmakers have a half point spread bet option for rugby! If you select Wales to win at a handicap of -8 and the match end in a result where the point difference equates to -8, it does not result in a push but rather in a losing bet. Why? Since the end result will then be a draw thus, selecting the ½ point spread betting option you get the safety in the fact that your bet can not result in a draw, sacrificing only a minute amount of your returns, since you will get slightly shorter odds offered on the half point.
Rugby Betting System Conclusion
If you are hoping to make a profit betting on rugby via a rugby betting system where you simply click a button, you will end up losing money!
Sure there are software applications developed to predict outcomes of matches, although we are yet to see one of these betting systems for rugby, however, those prediction systems are only as accurate as the data it’s provided. Not even to mention the accuracy of the algorithm and way it has been coded. Furthermore, it does not have common sense or the ability to factor in the news and developing stories, such as injuries to key players.
There is no such thing as an automated rugby betting system. We use the word rugby betting system in this post not to deceive the reader but as a term meaning a system consisting of a number of steps to assist you in determining the end result of a match. Which, if used correctly should result in more winning bets than not.
Good luck with your rugby betting!