Super Rugby Round 5 kicks off on Friday in what should be a rather one sided affair between the Kings and the Hurricanes, in total, we have 8 matches to look forward to including a Sunday fixture in Australia.
Round 5 of Super Rugby 2016, is perhaps the round which provides the best opportunity to make a profit, for rugby punters, if you look at the matchups, don’t be surprised if we see a number of upsets and big wins in round 5.
This is Rugby Bettings Super Rugby Round 5 Tips and Previews.
Hurricanes vs Kings
Round 5 sees only one Friday fixture, which should be a a walkover for the Hurricanes.
Southern Kings vs Hurricanes
We won’t delve too deep into this one, since it is obvious who the winner will be, with that being said the Hurricanes vs Kings does provide some good value in the spread.
The Hurricanes finally look like they got their “mojo” back, since their shock loss to the Brumbies in round 1, they have improved round by round and have now won their last 2 fixtures, rather convincingly.
The Hurricanes two wins come against the Blues and the Force, the latter they destroyed last week by 35-points. However, what would be most pleasing for Hurricanes coach, Chris Boyd, is the fact that the Hurricanes didn’t concede a single try against the Force, being absolutely superb on both defence and attack!
As we predicted last week, the Kings lost by 34-points against a second string Crusader team (we said the Kings will lose between 30 – 40 points, allow us to brag a bit!)
The Kings did score 3-tries but all those tries came from forwards mauling it over the line.
The two most worrying aspects for Kings supporters, if they have any supporters? Is the fact that, the Southern Kings lack total imagination on offence, they have no playmakers, and in a 17-phase attack by the Kings towards the end of the Crusaders match they rather embarrassingly lost ground without gaining any meters.
What is meant by the above? The Kings are a forward heavy team and will kick A LOT trying to play a territorial game and then challenging the set pieces since that is all they can do on attack.
The problem with the above strategy, implemented by the Kings, is that it plays right into New-Zealand teams hands especially the Hurricanes, who thrives on counter attack, a weak Kings defence will no doubt leak many tries when the Hurricanes are on counter attack.
Round 5 Super Rugby Predictions Hurricanes vs Kings:
While the Hurricanes, did make some changes to their lineup and are not fielding their best team, understandably so, they (the Hurricanes) are still fielding a very strong team.
We expect the Kings to play right into the Hurricanes hands, with their game plan mentioned above, and we expect another big defeat for the Kings. With The Hurricanes to win with 35-40 points.
What The Bookies Are Saying:
The Hurricanes are on offer at odds of @1.01 from BetVictor.
While the Kings are on offer at a whopping @17.00, not that anyone in their right mind will make that bet.
Rugby Betting’s recommended Bet Southern Kings vs Hurricanes
A 35 points start is a lot but the Hurricanes should easily cover it, running away in the second half.
Chiefs vs Force
This is another match which the one team is heavily favoured to win (the Chiefs) however there are some elements which can make this game closer than what many expects.
The Chiefs had to dig deep in their last match against the Jaguares, eventually winning by 4-points, but failing to cover the spread.
With that being said to win in Argentina is immensely difficult, so we will give credit to the Chiefs for grinding out the victory, even though they were poor at times.
Perhaps the biggest factor that will influence the Chiefs in their round 5 fixture against the Force, is the travel time.
The Chiefs had to fly halfway around the globe to play a very physical match against the Jaguares, only to fly straight back to New-Zealand and prepare for the Force.
The average travel time from Buenos Aires back to New Zealand is 20-hours, with a time-zone difference of 16-hours!
Thus, the Chiefs would have taken their flight on Sunday back to New-Zealand, arriving late Monday evening. Probably having Tuesday off to recover, from the Jet lag, which means they would only have started to prepare for their fixture on Wednesday.
What is meant by the above? The Chiefs are a far superior team compared to the Western Force, however, the traveling and short time to prepare to iron out their wrinkles would absolutely have an effect on their performance come Saturday
The Western Force are a bad team they have only one win in 4 matches, with their single victory coming against the Reds. The Reds are perhaps the poorest side in Super Rugby 2016 after the Southern Kings, thus, don’t read too much into the Western Force’s single victory.
The Problem with the Force is they are playing the wrong game, like the Kings, they lack any penetration on attack (they couldn’t score a single try against the Hurricanes last week)
The Force mostly relies on the boot of their flyhalf, Peter Grant, to keep them in the game.
With that being said the Force are physical and rather tough to beat upfront. If the Force wants any chance to win this match they would have to win the forward battle.
If, and that is a BIG IF, the Force can manage to dominate the set pieces, and force (no pun intended) some penalties, they might have a very slight chance of coming close, but don’t bank on it.
Round 5 Super Rugby Predictions Western Force VS Chiefs
This will be closer than many think, we believe the Force will be much improved after last week’s thrashing from the Force.
The Chiefs will be sluggish and will have to prepare for another physical match, how much fuel the Chiefs have left in the tank will depend on the outcome, or rather by how much they will win. Chiefs by plus – minus 8-points.
What The Bookmakers Are Saying:
There is no value in taking the Chiefs for a straight win at @1.08, which is the best odds for this match curtesy of Sportsbet Australia.
Those looking for the impossible, which sometimes does happen can get the Force at a rather generous @7.00
However, the true value in this round 5 fixture between the Chiefs and the Force comes in the handicap. The Line has been set at +/-18 points, thus giving the Force an 18-point start.
Rugby Betting’s recommended Bet Southern Kings vs Hurricanes
We believe the Chiefs don’t have much more left in the tank, and there is no doubt, the traveling would play a huge role in the Chiefs performance. While we believe the Chiefs will win, they won’t cover the spread of 18-points
Tip: Western Force By +18.5 1.91 from Sportsbet Australia (Confidence: 55%)
BET WITH SPORTSBET AUS & GET A 100% MATCHING BET
South African Residents Click Here To View Signup Bonuses From Local Bookmakers
UPDATE: RECOMMENDED ACCUMULATOR
No Guarantee. We don’t usually bet accumulators, however we believe the accumulator below has a very high probability to succeed, with low risk. Open an account with BetVictor and they will match your deposit with $25.
Rebels vs Highlanders.
The second match in our round 5 triple header sees the Hurricanes taking on the Rebels.
The Highlanders, like the Hurricanes, have been improving and is now a much better team than they were at the start of the tournament. They are coming off a superb win against Waratahs, where the Highlanders were big underdogs. (Allow us to brag some more – we took the Highlanders last week for a straight win at Marathonbet with odds @2.50 allowing for a nice little payout)
The Highlanders are finally starting to gel as a unit and combinations are starting to work. Proof of this comes in the statistics with the Highlanders scoring, a very impressive, 3.5 tries per match!
This match might not be as one-sided as many thinks. The Rebels are a tough nut to crack, and they are showing some real fight, despite them lacking some big name players
Here is a very interesting statistic for you. The Rebels and Highlanders have played 20-matches in Super Rugby thus far. 10 of those 20 matches have been won by the Rebels while the Highlanders winning the other 10 matches.
Yes, that’s correct there is a 50-50 win ratio between the Highlanders and Rebels.
The Rebels have proofed to be the boggy team of the Highlanders.
On offense the Rebels are rather impressive having scored 3-tries per match, however, their defence has been plaguing the Rebels missing an average 18.5 tackles per match.
If the Rebels want to have any chance to win this match they would need to improve their defence big time!
Round 5 Super Rugby Predictions Highlanders vs Rebels
As mentioned above the win ratio between the Highlanders and Rebels comes in at a very surprising 50:50 split, so an upset is not impossible!
With that being said we believe the Highlanders is a team on the rise and will enter this match with loads of confidence after their superb win against a star-studded Waratahs team last week.
Home field advantage will also give the Highlanders a slight advantage.
Don’t be surprised if we see an upset but we will take the safe route and pick the Highlanders to win by 10+ points.
What The Bookmakers Are Saying:
The Bookies took notice about the Highlanders / Rebels win ratio and have adjusted their odds accordingly.
William Hill Australia presents the best value for this round 5 fixture. The Highlanders are on offer at a very, very, generous offer of odds @1.57 for a straight win. (JUMP ON IT)
Those hoping for an upset can get the Rebels at odds of @2.50, which is too short in our opinion.
Again the best value can be found in the handicap with the line, being set at a very generous +/- 4-points. @1.91
Rugby Betting’s recommended Bet Rebels vs Highlanders
We believe past statistics are influencing the odds, for this match which certainly offers a big opportunity for punters.
Tip: Highlanders -4.5 points @1.91 from William Hill Australia. (Confidence: 85%)BET WITH WILLIAM HILL AUS & GET UP TO $200 IN BONUS BETS
Sunwolves vs Bulls
The 3rd match in our round 5 triple header sees the Sunwolves taking on the Bulls in only the 2nd Super Rugby match ever to be played in Singapore.
The Sunwolves are coming of a disappointing loss against a Rebels team, which is “okay” but by no means spectacular. Last week’s game was played in Tokyo which makes the 26-point loss to the Rebels even more disappointing.
We wrote in round 3 that the 1-point loss in the Sunwolves 3rd round fixture against the Cheetahs, may have broken team moral for the Wolves and we believe that was exactly the case, since last week was the first time since the Sunwolves entrance into Super Rugby where they really got beaten badly and were unable to score a try.
We wrote in the review between the Highlanders and Rebels that the Rebels defence has been poor this season, with the Rebels missing on average 18.5 tackles per match, which makes it, even more, concerning for the Sunwolves offence, that they were unable to penetrate the Rebels defence!
The Sunwolves strengths come in the form of their backline, with the Sunwolves thriving on loose ball, broken play and turnovers.
Upfront the Sunwolves are okay, but far from spectacular and they might struggle against the Bulls forward pack, which is one of the best packs in the tournament.
If the Sunwolves want to have any chance to pick up a win in round 5, they will need to be able to compete upfront, allowing them to bring in the backline, if they are unable to do that, it will be a very long 80-minutes for the team from Tokyo.
The Bulls can consider themselves extremely lucky to come away with a draw against the Sharks in their previous match. It has been a hot & cold season for the Bulls this far, their record reads L,W,D with 6 log points.
While the Bulls did show some moments of brilliance against the Sharks, they were also poor at times and would need to improve their consistency if they want any chance to get a playoff spot in Super Rugby 2016.
A worrying aspect for the Bulls as they enter the match against the Sunwolves is the number of turnovers they concede per match. Last week they conceded a whopping 21 turnovers against the Sharks.
The Bulls large number of turnovers that they conceded last week can be contributed to two factors.
Firstly the Bulls are trying to play a more expansive game plan, which they are still getting used to under the new coaching regime of Nollis Marais.
Secondly, Marcell Coetzee is one of the best fetchers in World Rugby and plagued the Bulls throughout the match
Round 5 Super Rugby Predictions Bulls vs Sunwolves
As mentioned above the Sunwolves thrive on turnovers and broken play thus, the only thing the Bulls really need to do to win this match is to protect the ball at ruck & maul time and prevent broken play scenarios from happening. If the Bulls can do that, which we expect they should, the Bulls will win this one comfortably with approximately 20-pointsOpen BetVictor Account & Receive a R250 Free Bet
What The Bookmakers Are Saying:
All major bookies agree with our round 5 predictions, with BetVictor, as they so often do, offering the best value bet for the Bulls vs Sunwolves.
Punters can bet on the Bulls for a straight win at odds of @1.10, which is actually not a bad price.
Consider this Bet R/$1000, and basically, get back a guaranteed “R/$100” since we just can’t see the Bulls losing this one ($1000 + Win ($100) = $1100) that is a 10% ROI, which is not bad.
Those looking for the impossible can bet on the Sunwolves at odds of @6.5.
However, it is again in the Handicap where the best value bet can be found. The line has been set at +/- 16.5 points @1.91
Rugby Betting’s recommended Bet Bulls vs Sunwolves
The Bulls should cover the spread rather easily thus, we suggest taking the Bulls at -16.5
Cheetahs vs Brumbies
Nothing too much to look into here, since a Cheetah upset is not impossible but highly unlikely.
The Cheetahs have been rather disappointing this season, however, it was certainly not to be unexpected.
We have been saying it week in and week out but if you look at all the big name players the Cheetahs have produced over the years only to lose them to larger franchises, is so disappointing for the Cheetahs franchise. Over the recent 2-years, the Cheetahs have lost the following players
Willie LeRoux (Sharks), Coenie Oosthuyzen (Sharks) , Adriaan Strauss (Bulls), Johan Sadie (Europe), Johan Goosen (Europe), Wilhelm Steenkamp (Force) to name but a few.
However, despite this, the Cheetahs still remain competitive, despite only having 1 win out of 4 matches played, with their single victory coming against the Sunwolves, a match which the Cheetahs can consider them very fortunate to have won.
Despite their record we do believe the Cheetahs are a better team than it looks on paper, the Cheetahs are brilliant on attack. No, offense is not their problem.
The problem for the Cheetahs is their defence, which was perfectly highlighted in last week’s loss to the Lions.
Touring through South Africa is tough, real tough as the Brumbies came to realise in their loss against the Stormers.
The Brumbies weren’t poor against the Stormers, however, they weren’t great either, and finally a few weaknesses in this Brumbies team has been exposed by the Stormers side.
With the Brumbies now heading towards the Free State for their round 5 clash against the Cheetahs, their task will be slightly more difficult than is to be expected, meaning we are expecting a Brumbies victory not just by as much as many is possibly expecting.
Why are we saying a Brumbies victory will be slightly tougher than to be expected? Because, if you look at the statistics from past Super Rugby matches against the Cheetahs and the Brumbies it does not paint as one-sided picture as to be expected.
There have been 11-matches played between the Brumbies and Cheetahs with the Brumbies winning 8 of them (72%) while the Cheetahs have won 3 (28%).
However that is not the interesting statistics we are after, the average winning margin per match is perhaps the most interesting with the average winning score being 10-points for the Brumbies.
Round 5 Super Rugby Predictions Brumbies vs Cheetahs
The Brumbies will likely have a slight advantage up front, which will give them try-scoring opportunities against a very poor Cheetahs defence, however, the Cheetahs might be able to score a few tries of their own – however not nearly enough to win the match. Brumbies by 15 points
What The Bookies Are Saying:
Brumbies are on offer at a very generous, @1.25 from Marathonbet (like using short odds, large stake bets strategy jump on this NOW)
Die heart Cheetah supporters hoping for an upset, which is highly unlikely can find the Cheetahs on offer @ 4.35 also from Marathonbet.
However again we believe the true value of this bet comes in the handicap, the Bookmakers have taken noticed of the average winning margin in all Super Rugby matches played between Brumbies and Cheetahs and have thus, set the line at -12 points.
In our opinion, this does NOT reflect current Super Rugby form and Brumbies revenge factor against a demoralised Cheetahs team.
Rugby Betting’s recommended Bet Brumbies vs Cheetahs
If the Lions could have won the Cheetahs with 20 points + last week there is no reason for the Brumbies not to cover this match.
TIP: Bet on Brumbies -12 @1.91 From Marathonbet (CONFIDENCE: 85%)Bet With Marathonbet & Receive a R200 Signup Bonus
Tagged with: Super Rugby