After a bad round 5 for Super Rugby punters and tipsters, mainly due to the number of mismatches (it is always difficult to pick a winner on a spread when it is set at -12 and upwards) Rugby Betting and our Super Rugby punting members are hoping to make a bounce back in Super Rugby round 6, which presents some very good prospects, mainly because most of the matches are equally balanced, we have some real statistics to delve into.
This is Rugby Bettings Super Rugby Round 6 Betting Predictions, Previews and Tips
Western Force vs Highlanders
The 1st game of Round 6 Kick-off on Friday, in what is one of the few one-sided match ups in round 6, with that being said we have learned a lot about the Force over recent weeks, and it is definitely worth getting involved in this match.
The Western Force, well, there is really not a single good thing to be said about them. They have had a New-Zealand tour to forget about. This will be the Western Force’s 2nd last match of a brutal New-Zealand tour (next week they face the Crusaders…YIKES!) before they head back home to Australia.
This is a demoralized group of players, who lacks penetration on offence and don’t have any strong defence to make up for their lack of offence.
Here is a statistic to proof just how poor the Western Force is, and why they are sitting, second last in the Australasian group, only 1-point ahead of the Reds!
On the Force’s New-Zealand tour they played 2-matches thus far, 1 against the Hurricanes, and the second against the Chiefs, the latter who completely destroyed them last week.
In those 2-matches the Force conceded 94-points (41-points against the Hurricanes and 53-points against the Chiefs…see a pattern?) Don’t think it is bad enough, listen to this statistic, while the Force gave up 94-points in their last two matches they have only scored 16 points.
Let’s pause here for a second, and take it in again…, in the last two games against New-Zealand opponents the Force gave up 94-points while only scoring 16-points!
But wait, there is more! In the Western Force previous two games against New-Zealand opponents, they only managed to score a SINGLE (ONE) try while the Chiefs scored 9, tries against them last week and the Hurricanes scored 6-tries against them. Yes, that’s right, the Force got outscored 15-tries to 1 in their previous two matches.
Why are the Force not scoring any tries, while conceding so many points?
The answer to the above is simple, The Force realise you can’t kick too much against New-Zealand teams, due to their superb counter-attacking ability. Thus, the Force is trying to play a ball in hand game (as seen last week) however, it is NOT working for them. They have no playmakers and they simply can’t penetrate opposition defence, which often drives them back in attack, turn over the ball and then score.
Furthermore, as soon as broken play occurs, or a few good offloads happen it is try time for the opposition. The Force has no scramble defence and their defensive pattern leaves much to be desired!
One can’t help to feel sorry for the Force, they will be facing an extremely confident Highlanders team on Friday who is coming off superb victories against the Waratahs and Rebels, away from home. The Waratahs like the Chiefs have some superb offloading ability and Ben Smith & co have the potential to slice through the Force defence like a hot knife through butter!
We mentioned earlier the number of tries and points the Force conceded while scoring hardly any points of their own. We asked if you could spot a pattern. The pattern is simple currently, the Force are getting beaten with 40-points plus against New-Zealand opposition while not scoring more than 10-points per game.
Round 6 Super Rugby Predictions Force vs Highlanders
As mentioned above, the money is in the statistics for this one:
The average points for and against for the Western Force reads as follows. They are getting outscored 47-points to 6! Thus, there is an average winning margin of 41-points. Mainly because the New Zealand teams are playing a game the Force can’t compete with and they lack any playmakers, as mentioned above. Thus, we expect the Force to lose by 35-40 points
What the Bookmakers are saying?
The best value can be found at Sportsbet Australia who has set the line at a very generous +/- 19-points at odds of @1.92
Rugby Bettings Recommended Bet:
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Crusaders vs Lions
The second match of Super Rugby round 6 sees the Lions playing the Crusaders at Ellis Park, and there is some serious, serious, opportunity for money making in this one folks!
The Lions are coming off a bye and should be well rested. Coach Johan Ackermann has elected to select the Lions pin-point accurate goal kicker, Marnitz Boshoff, ahead of Elton Jantjies (whose goal kick has been poor, but play making excellent)
It is not hard to see what tactics the Lions will be taking on in this match, with the above change. The Lions will be playing mostly a territorial game, hoping to force penalties, within the Crusaders half and then ask Marnitz Boshoff to get them the 3-points, don’t be surprised if you see a drop goal or two as well.
The above change indicates, to us that the Lions are not confident that they will be able to penetrate the defense of the Crusaders. Furthermore, the change and tactics likely to be adopted, as mentioned above, is playing right into the Crusaders hands.
The Crusaders won a thriller in Durban, last week, against a very good Sharks team, they will be confident heading to Ellis Park to face the Lions after last week’s victory.
The Crusaders are fielding one hell of a starting 15, and although the entire rugby world agrees Ellis Park is one of the toughest venues to pick up a win, altitude being one of the primary factors, the Crusaders have a strong enough bench to counter altitude fatigue when it sets in.
Wyatt Crockett, Codie Taylor and Owen Franks will make up the Crusaders front row and there is enough firepower in the scrum to counter, what has been a relatively strong Lions scrum, we would go as far as saying, don’t be surprised if the Lions actually get out scrummed in this round 6 fixture!
Whitelock will be missed come lineout time though and how well his replacement, Luke Romano who is no stranger to Super Rugby with 55-caps, fills Whitlock’s position will largely depend who will dominate the lineouts. With that being said the Crusaders have a number of other players to go to in the lineout as well.
At the rucks and mauls, the Crusaders have Luke Romano, Jimmy Tupou and Kieran Read who will make life difficult for the Lions all match long.
Playmakers for the Crusaders include veterans, Kieran Read and Andy Ellis. Reliable Ryan Crotty is at inside center, and the powerful Crusaders battering ram, Nemani Nadolo is playing at 11.
We will say it again this is one hell of a Crusaders team, perhaps not as strong as in previous Super Rugby competitions, but still very powerful. This Crusaders team has perhaps just the right mix of youth and experience and it looks like they have finally found their “mojo.”
Super Rugby Round 6 Predictions Lions vs Crusaders
Take nothing away from the Lions they are a very good team and have shown some real spirit and fight, within the team, resulting in them picking up 3-wins and only 1-loss. However, the Lions victories came mostly against, “weaker opponents” again taking nothing away from the Lions.
We don’t believe the Lions are a better side than the Sharks and if the Crusaders could have seen of the Sharks they should have no problem seeing of the Lions in this Super Rugby round 6 fixture.
Furthermore, we just don’t believe the Lions have enough firepower to compete with the Crusaders both in the forwards and back line. Crusaders to win by 9+ points
What the Bookmakers are saying?
Very, very interesting! We believe the Bookmakers got this round 6 fixture between the Lions and Crusaders completely wrong!
BetVictor, one of the best bookies in the world, have presented punters with excellent money making opportunities!
The Crusaders are on offer at odds of @1.67 for a straight win for BetVictor, jump on it NOW!
The Lions are on offer at odds of @2.10 for a straight win, which is way too short!
However, the true value comes in with the handicap bet, listen to this:
BetVictor has set the spread at only 2-points giving the Lions a +2-point start over the Crusaders grab it, bet on it, do what you have to do, but that is a return on investment opportunity with a very high probability of paying out!
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Blues vs Jaguares
There are two types of games we approach with caution, games where there is a mismatch and the spread is set at more than 10 points. In mismatches the favourite team don’t often take the game to seriously and tend to underperform, or they just blow the weaker team apart all of which makes the spread very hard to predict. (Perfect example Chiefs and Force last week and Highlanders and Force this week.)
And then there is the second type of game we tend to avoid which is a game like the Blues and the Jaguares.
Why? Simple, we believe if you constantly follow statistic and bet according to it you will turn a profit more often than not. The Blues and the Jaguares does not give us any historical statistics to go with which makes it rather hard to predict.
Nevertheless we can use what we have seen in the tournament thus far and try to make as accurate a prediction as possible.
The Blues, well…it is rather hard to say where they currently find themselves. True, we did label the Blues, prior to the Super Rugby start as the team to be most improved, and they started magnificently with a win against the Highlanders in round 1, but ever since then, they have been hot and cold.
Blues coach Umaga said setpieces are an area they worked very hard on during the offseason yet, we have seen the Blues set pieces crumble at crucial times during tight games.
We believe this is an area where the Jaguares can target the Blues, because although the Blues scrum and lineout is much improved from the previous two seasons it is still far from perfect.
The Jaguares, are one of the best scrummaging teams in Super Rugby and a large part of this game will depend whether the Blues scrum can stand up to the expertise of the Argentinian scrum.
Furthermore, we have sung praises to Blues flyhalf Ihaia West, he has some serious potential and can go on to become the next Dan Carter.
With that being said, he (West) is still very young and inexperienced, which means as much potential as he has, West has made some rookie mistakes in key moments for the Blues.
Ihaia West is an excellent goal kicker but somehow always struggles with his first 2 kicks, just go back and watch the Blues last 4 games. He missed some real gimmies with his first 2 kicks while making unbelievable kicks towards the end of the game.
What is the point of the above? We are saying West as good as he is will need to improve his goal kicking at the start of the game since those, 6-points or so, left on the field can often be the difference between a win and a lose!
Some Worrying statistics for the Blues:
- The Blues concede an average of 15 turnovers per game
- The Blues “only” scores 2.1 tries per match which is not that impressive considering they beat on average 20 defenders per game, that try average needs to come up to at least 3 tries per match
- Ihaia West overall kicking success rate is 70% (that’s where we say the extra 6-points, or so, left on the field comes in)
The key for the Blues in their round 6 fixture against the Jaguares is to stay disciplined, stay strong in the set pieces and try to limit the amount of turnovers.
Rugby Bettings Predictions Blues vs Jaguares
This is one of those games where it can go either way, the Blues are coming of a bye which can often lead to a break in momentum or, it can result in the Blues ironing out some of the wrinkles in their game and come out firing.
We think this is a game the Jaguares will believe they can win, each round has an upset and we just have that feeling – Super Rugby’s round 6 upset is going to be between the Blues and the Jaguares. Jaguares to win by 4-points
What the Bookmakers are saying?
The Bookmakers, and perhaps most punters, disagree with our prediction and made the Blues BIG favourites.
BetVictor offering superb odds always, has the Blues at odds of @1.33 for a straight win. Those hoping for an upset can take the Jaguares at a very generous @3.40
The line has been set at +/- 9-points.
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Chiefs vs Brumbies
The 4th match of Super rugby round 6 should be a thriller between the two best teams in the tournament at the moment, with the Brumbies, currently the best Australian team playing the Chiefs, currently the best New-Zealand team. This should be a real feast for the eyes!
The Brumbies weren’t their clinical self, last week playing away from home, against the Cheetahs in South Africa in what was a scrappy match which the Brumbies eventually won by 7-points failing to cover the spread in the process!
We have asked the question before how good are the Brumbies away from home? We believe that question has now been answered with the Brumbies losing away from home, in their South African tour, against the Stormers and then winning with only 7-points against the Cheetahs, as mentioned above.
However, all that is in the past now and the Brumbies have returned to their safe haven which is, GIO Stadium in Australia, where they will be waiting for the Chiefs.
A loss to the Chiefs in round 6 will cause the critics to start questioning the Brumbies as title contenders, and early favourites, however, a win will do away with any lingering doubts.
The Brumbies are fielding a largely healthy team with no major injuries, which is good, however, one has to ask the question will the travel all the way from South Africa to Australia have any influence in the Brumbies performance come Saturday? The answer, well it’s hard to tell…it might, it might not, and thus, we won’t delve too deep into the travel factor for the Brumbies!
All encounters between the Brumbies and the Chiefs have been relatively close affairs. When looking at the statistics from 2007 to present – it is the Brumbies who holds the advantage, albeit a small advantage.
There has been a total of 22 Super Rugby matches played between these two teams with the Brumbies winning 13 of those fixtures and the Chiefs winning 8, there has been one draw.
Interestingly the average point difference between the Brumbies and the Chiefs is 6.1 points favouring the Brumbies, however, one has to take into account the Chiefs prior to 2012 were not a very good team, while the Brumbies had a dominant period around 2007, however, the reverse is also true, with the Brumbies prior to Jake White stepping in being bottom dwellers while the Chiefs had their glory days. Thus, we believe it is fair to say the statistics balances out.
Super Rugby Round 6 Predictions Brumbies vs Chiefs
We believe an excellent Brumbies rush defence will make it difficult for the Chiefs to play their attacking style of rugby.
The Brumbies are a team which are very clinical (precise) in all areas of the game, perfect execution is one of their top priority. We believe their clinical execution compared to the Chiefs sometimes wild, but very effective and entertaining style of play, will give the Brumbies the advantage, including home ground advantage which should play a huge part in this round 6 fixture as the Brumbies have been brilliant at home thus far in Super Rugby 2016.
Furthermore, we have bumped our head to many times by not listening to statistics. Stats don’t lie folks and it is favouring the Brumbies. We expect a close game with the Brumbies winning by 5-points.
What the Bookmakers are saying?
BetStar, an absolutely superb Australian bookmaker, are offering some very good odds on this one, plus they will match your first deposit by $100, which takes a lot of risk away and pave the way for some serious returns!
South African residents can use BetVictor to bet on this one, offering equally good odds.
According to the Bookmakers we got this one spot on, all major sportsbooks including BetStar, have gone the statistics route – setting their lines at +/- 5-points, giving the Chiefs a 5-point start at odds of @1.91.
Those looking to make the safer bet can take the Brumbies for a straight win at odds of @1.57, the Chiefs are on offer at a very generous @2.38 from BetStar, click here to bet now!
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Sunwolves vs Kings
In a tough to predict, but perhaps equally balanced matchup the Southern Kings will play the Sunwolves.
Not much was expected from the Sunwolves as they entered Super Rugby 2016 however, The Sunwolves have been very impressive for a team which is from Japan and making its Super Rugby debut, although they have lost all of their matches thus far, it has been close and had the Wolves had a bit more experience we would go out on a limb and say they might very well have had 2 or 3 wins in the “W” column.
With that being said all the Sunwolves fixtures thus far have been played at home, either in Tokyo or Singapore, and their first real test of Super Rugby will come when they realise just how tough it is touring South Africa. With that being said they could not have asked for a better opponent to play in their first match away from home than the Southern Kings.
The Wolves real strength is in broken play and on the counter attack, the Kings tend to turn over a lot of ball, as well as kick a lot so there will be plenty of counter attacking opportunities for the Sunwolves.
We also have to complement the Sunwolves defence which has been relatively good thus far, mainly because the Sunwolves commit just the right amount of players at the breakdown area, as was highlighted in last week’s fixture against the Bulls. Resulting in the Wolves more often than not having a solid defensive line.
However, one area which has been plaguing the Sunwolves throughout the tournament have been their set pieces, more specifically, their scrums. The Sunwolves got heavily out scrummed in just about every fixture this far, which resulted in a number of penalties for the opposition team.
If the Sunwolves are hoping to win any matches in Super Rugby 2016, rather than just being competitive, they will drastically need to improve their scrum, easier said than done, though!
It is something which really can come to bite the Wolves (no pun intended) in close fixtures, especially on Saturday against the Southern Kings which is largely expect to be a closely contested match by all pundits.
We realise as a top rugby publication we need to remain unbiased, however, we also do believe the large majority of Super Rugby supporters agree with our sentiment over the Southern Kings, and our claim that the Southern Kings does not deserve their place in the current tournament.
The Kings are only in the current tournament thanks to the South African sports ministry insistence of having a team from the South African South Coast (a largely black population area), which is supposedly meant to speed up transformation, go figure.
It is not about the transformation issue that we have a problem with the Southern Kings participating in Super Rugby, but rather because we believe they are not up to standard when compared to other teams, and their spot could rather have gone to a team from Argentina, or even USA (would that not have done wonders to grow the game in the US?)
With that being said the Kings are in the tournament so let’s get back and evaluate what their chances are against the Sunwolves, come Saturday’s round 6 fixture.
Let it be said straight from the start that predicting these games are extremely difficult and we tend to stay away from them.
Why? Since we have no historical statistics to work with, however, there are a few interesting statistics from the matches the Kings and Sunwolves have played in their Super Rugby matches till this far in the tournament.
Sunwolves vs Kings Attack Statistics
Tries – Currently the Kings and Sunwolves are tied, in 3rd last place, for number of tries scored with 8-tries per match.
Clean Breaks – With clean breaks the Kings are dead last on 20 clean breaks.
While the Sunwolves are sitting somewhere in the middle of the log for clean breaks with a respectable 38. The problem for the Sunwolves are those clean breaks are not getting converted into enough tries!
Carries & Metres – The Kings are dead last for carries and metres made in the tournament, closely followed by the Sunwolves, however, one could argue due to the Sunwolves lack of carries and minimal possession, their clean break statistic is even more impressive!
Defenders Beaten – Again the Kings are dead last in for defenders beaten with only 39 defenders beaten.
While the Sunwolves are 2nd last with 51 defenders beaten.
Offloads – Surprise….Yet again The Kings are dead last for offloads (see why we say they should not be in the tournament?) With a mere 19 offloads in 4-games
The Sunwolves are second last with 30 offloads out of their 4-games which is certainly a bit more respectable.
Sunwolves vs Kings Defence Statistics
Tackles success percentage – Kings last out of all teams with tackle success only averaging a 76.1% success percentage.
The Sunwolves are averaging an 81.5% tackling success rate, not too far away from the number one spot, which is currently held by the Crusaders at 88.5%.
Sunwolves vs Kings Scrums Success Statistics
Scrum Success – The only statistic where the Kings are currently topping the Sunwolves is in the scrum percentages. The Kings are averaging an 88% scrum success percentage.
The Sunwolves are winning 81% of their scrums.
(Side Note: The number 1 team in terms of scrum success and tackling success percentage is the Crusaders…that’s why we said BET BIG ON THE CRUSADERS AGAINST THE LIONS, in our Super Rugby Round 6 predictions)
Super Rugby Round 6 Predictions Sunwolves vs Southern Kings
This is a tough one although the Kings are pretty much dead last in the statistics from the tournament, they have the home field advantage and we are yet to see how the Sunwolves perform away from home!
With that being said, there is no doubt that the Sunwolves would have been targeting this game for a long time as their potential first ever Super Rugby win.
Also, Nelson Mandela Stadium has a seating capacity of around 50’000 people, but only fills 5000 fans on a good day, so the crowd will not be much of an influence (the Kings simply don’t have fans, sad but true.)
IF, again, IF the Sunwolves can compete with the Kings come scrum time, which we think they can, they (the Sunwolves) will win this one by about 5-points
What the Bookmakers are saying?
All major Bookmakers including, Sportingbet, disagree with our prediction with the Sunwolves pulling off an upset, will it really be an upset? We certainly don’t think so!
Sportingbet currently has the Southern Kings at odds of @1.61 for a straight win. The Sunwolves can be found at a reasonable @2.37 for a straight win.
We believe the true value in this game comes in the form of the handicap, Sportingbet has given the Sunwolves a start of +3.5 points at odds of @1.91
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Bulls vs Cheetahs
We are not going to dig too deep into this one as it should be rather obvious who is going to win this one (Bulls!)
Look the Bulls have not been spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, although they have been slightly better than last year, or have day?
With that being said, the Cheetahs (yes we are saying it again) having lost all their star players to bigger, richer unions are struggling in Super Rugby 2016.
The Bulls are trying to play a slightly more expansive game than in previous years, and they are starting to adjust to the new game plan slowly but surely.
One can’t help but wonder if the Bulls would have been a much better team had Handre Pollard been healthy at flyhalf since the current Bulls flyhalf is struggling not only with getting the backline started but also with his place kicking (a traditional strength of the Bulls)
We might have given the Cheetahs a chance of winning this game, big name players or not, however, the fact that this game is getting played at Loftus (home of the Bulls) leads us to believe there is simply no chance for the Cheetahs to win this game.
The Bulls have a big forward pack, and the fact that the Cheetahs are dead last in the tournament with scrum success, at only 66%, which is even behind the Sunwolves, means the Cheetahs are going to struggle all game long come scrum time.
A further suggestion to back up our confident claim that the Cheetahs will lose (we have absolutely nothing against the Cheetahs) can be found in the statistics which reads horribly for Cheetah supporters.
The Cheetahs have only managed to win the Bulls twice in 15 fixtures, those two solo victories came in 2014 when the Cheetahs was at their best and it came in Bloemfontein, not at Loftus.
Just to add a bit of salt to the wound for the Cheetahs the average points difference per game is 11-points per game in favour of the Bulls.
Super Rugby Round 6 Predictions Bulls vs Cheetahs
Again statistics don’t lie folks, the Cheetahs have hardly tasted any success against the Bulls and the Bulls are improving while the Cheetahs are imploding (sadly)
Combine the above with a struggling Cheetahs scrum, and the Cheetahs playing away from home all leads us to believe the Bulls will win this round 6 fixture rather comfortably with 12+ points!
What the Bookmakers are saying?
The Bulls are on offer from Sportingbet South Africa at a very reasonable @1.28 for a straight win, bet big and get pretty much a 28% guaranteed return on your investment.
Those looking for the near impossible can find the Cheetahs at odds of @3.60, much to short in our opinion for the amount of risk involved in that bet.
Sportingbet South Africa have set the line at a very reasonable +/- 9-points at odds of @1.91
Rugby bettings recommended bet
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Waratahs vs Rebels
Nice in play bet on the Rebels read our rugby betting tutorial on live inplay betting and our favourite large stake, short to medium odds betting strategy.
Reds and Blues games to follow soon! Remember to join the conversation on our rugby betting blog
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