Super Rugby Round 8, sees the halfway mark of the tournament, from here on in few teams can afford to slip up and we can expect to see a weekend filled with bloodshed and tears with a mouthwatering 6 fixtures to look forward to including the much anticipated derby between the Lions and the Stormers (more on that later) this is rugby bettings weekly Super Rugby Preview
Super Rugby Round 8 Friday previews & predictions
Super Rugby round 8 kicks off with a Friday doubleheader the 1st match of which sees the Argentinian Jaguares, complete an exhausting New-Zealand tour against the Crusaders at Christchurch.
Super Rugby Round 8 Jaguares vs Crusaders
The Jaguares, as a debutant Super Rugby team, can fly out of New Zealand with their heads held high, despite losing both their games, they have been relatively competitive and were never blown away. Can they pull of an upset against the Crusaders come Friday at odds off @5.00?
Jaguares vs Crusaders Spread.
Out of the 2 New Zealand matches the Jaguares played this far, the spread has gone under in their first match against the Blues, and over against the Hurricanes, meaning the Jaguares are 1 from 1 compared against the spread thus, Friday’s fixture against the Crusaders will determine from a gambling perspective whether the Jaguares had a winning tour or not.
The spread for Friday’s fixture has been set at 13-points, which, in our opinion, presents some great value.
Can the Jaguares cover?
We believe the Jaguares, who have literally, flown around the globe in the past 4-weeks from Argentina, to South Africa to face the Stormers, and then to New-Zealand for a brutal 2-matches against the Blues and Canes, will be running low on gas.
We don’t believe the Jaguares will have enough left to face a very good Crusaders team.
Finishing Plaguing the Jaguares.
Looking back to the Jaguares previous two matches, the Jaguares had some real opportunities to put points on the board but failed to capitalise.
Despite the Jaguares building some real pressure when it comes to the kill more often than not there was always a pass going forward, or a ball dropped i.e. they (the Jaguares) lack finishing.
The fact that the Jaguares lacks finishing is not a skill problem it is a patience on attack problem caused by inexperienced.
We bring in the inexperience and finishing factor since we believe it will lead to the Jaguares leaving many points on the field, which can (or will) plague their chances to cover the spread.
Having mentioned the Jaguares lack of finishing above, the Crusaders, on the contrary are masters at finishing, and that will ultimately be the difference when it comes to covering the spread.
Can the Crusaders win by more than 13-points?
In short the answer is yes, for the Crusaders to cover the spread and win by more than 13-points they will need to do 2 basic things, be strong on defence while putting points on the board whenever they are presented with an opportunity and we believe the Crusaders can do just that.
Statistics pointing towards the Crusaders covering the spread.
A brief look at the statistics reveals the Crusaders are the team, only 2nd behind the Chiefs, who have scored the most tries in the competition, this far, with 25-tries.
When compared with the Jaguares who are ranked in 12th place with only 14-tries – all points towards the Crusaders covering!
When looking at defence, tackle success percentage to be precise, the Crusaders are yet again right up there, in 2nd place only behind the Sharks with a tackle success percentage of 87.1%.
The Jaguares are certainly not a very good defensive team, statistically, when it comes to tackling success percentage with a success rate of only 80.5% percent, only the Kings and Sunwolves trailing them.
Super Rugby Predictions round 8 Jaguares vs Crusaders
When factoring in the above points, mainly the Crusaders being far superior, statistically, on both attack and defence, combined with a Jaguares team plagued with injuries and running low on gas, all points towards the Crusaders covering rather comfortably at odds of @1.91.
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Rebels vs Hurricanes
The second match of our Super Rugby round 8 Friday double header sees the Rebels hosting the Hurricanes.
The Rebels have played phenomenally well in Super Rugby 2016 and have been superb at home, winning against all odds against the Waratahs last week which certainly caused many punters a lot of headaches.
Straight up win @ 2.50, can the Rebels upset against the Hurricanes?
Despite the Rebels, having proofed by now, that they should no longer be regarded as a “mino” team, they are still opening as underdogs in their own backyard.
With that being said they are playing the Hurricanes who were the trendsetters in last year’s tournament and coming of a victory of their own against the Jaguares last week, so one can argue the underdog title is fair.
The bookies got the odds spot on for this round 8 fixture in our opinion, and this is another match which presents some real opportunity for pundits.
As Super Rugby round 8 signals the halfway mark of Super Rugby 2016, the Hurricanes match against the Rebels will largely dictate where they go from here.
A loss against the Rebels will see the Hurricanes stock plummeting and will no doubt be a huge setback for their Super Rugby aspirations’ which is still very much alive.
True the Hurricanes are not good in Australia, with some disastrous results against their name, with that being said we believe the Hurricanes, are finally starting to click as a unit.
While we have huge respect for the Rebels, the Hurricanes are a stronger team overall and can’t see them (the Rebels) winning this round 8 fixture.
Rebels vs Hurricanes spread.
The spread for the match is opening at 3-points, which is to close for comfort in our opinion. We will be reluctant to trust the Rebels at +3 points while at the same time we will not be too comfortable with the Hurricanes at -3 thus, the value for this match come in the straight up bet.
As mentioned above we believe the Hurricanes are a better team, despite the Rebels having done more than enough to proof themselves as a force to be reckoned with, especially when playing at home.
Statistically, the Hurricanes should win
The Hurricanes are right up there with the best when looking at the statistics, on attack they present much more value than the Rebels, attack statistics follows below:
- Tries: Hurricanes 4th (22), Rebels 13th (14)
- Clean Breaks: Hurricanes 4th (72), Rebels 15th (48)
- Carries: Hurricanes 2nd (737), Rebels 7th (679)
- Meters Made: Hurricanes 3rd (3138), Rebels 15th (2365)
Super Rugby Predictions round 8 Rebels vs Hurricanes
The only important statistic where the Rebels is currently topping the Hurricanes are with defensive statistics.
Defence alone will not be enough to win this match, and we are relatively comfortable trusting the Hurricanes with our money at a straight up win at a very generous @1.60.
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Super Rugby Predictions round 8 Sharks vs Blues
The Sharks kick off their New Zealand tour with a crucial fixture against the Blues, despite having suffered a major setback with the Sharks, world class flanker, Marcell Coetzee getting ruled out for the remainder of the competition the Sharks should be determined to kick off their tough New-Zealand tour with a victory.
The Spread Sharks Vs Blues
Sportingbet South Africa opened their spread at 6-points, with effectively a try separating the two teams.
The Blues are playing a terrifically entertaining brand of rugby and continue to grow under Tana Umaga, despite being bottom of the New Zealand teams for overall wins in 2016 until this far. Blues pivot ihaia West has been a revelation for the Blues in Super Rugby 2016 and have certainly made the most of the trust the Blues invested in him.
With that being said one aspect which West is slightly struggling with is his goal kicking. In what is expected to be a closely contested content between the more structured approach of the Sharks against the adventurous, all in approach of the Blues, penalty goals and conversions becomes of vital importance.
Can the Sharks Cover at odds of @1.91
With the spread set at only 6-points, we mentioned goal kicking above since we believe it can be the difference between the two teams. Although we expect the Blues to win a rather closely contested contested we believe the Blues might just leave enough points on the field for the Sharks to come within 5-points.
Brumbies vs Waratahs
Little to no value in a 2-point spread, however, the Brumbies provide immense value for a straight up win coming of a bye at odds of @1.80
Bulls vs Reds
True the Reds have been upping their game recently, and the Bulls have been unimpressive. However, Loftus remains one of the toughest places to pick up a win, this is especially true for the Reds who have a horrid record at Loftus.
The Spread opens at -11 however, we feel just a touch uncomfortable trusting the Bulls with – (minus) 11-points at odds of @2.00, a safer bet is to bet Bulls via Sportingbet SA who has an alternative handicap of -7.5 at great odds of @1.70
Tagged with: Super Rugby